It’s Netflix and chill now, but by 2025 The Walt Disney Company’s video streaming service Disney+, which will launch sometime from June 2022 in South Africa, will overtake Netflix as the world’s big winner in the streaming wars.
Research firm Digital TV Research has published a new market intelligence report, predicting that Disney+ will dethrone Netflix within less than four years.
“Global subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) subscriptions will increase by 491 million between 2021 and 2026 to reach 1.64 billion.”
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, says, “China and the United States had a similar number of subscriptions by end-2020. Due to government pressure, China’s growth is decelerating, with 354 million subscriptions expected by 2026. The United States will continue to grow, with 450 million subscriptions expected by 2026.”
“China and the United States will together account for 49% of the global total by 2026, down from 56% in 2021.”
“Three platforms will control nearly half the world’s SVOD subscriptions by 2026. Disney+ will be the biggest winner, overtaking Netflix in 2025,” the latest projections show.
“Disney+ will add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to bring its total to 284 million. About 121 million of Disney+ subscribers (43% of its total) in 2026 will be in the 13 Asian countries under the Hotstar brand.”
Digital TV Research now estimates that Netflix will add 53 million subscribers to reach 271 million subscribers by 2026.
Amazon Prime Video is expected to reach 243.4 million subscribers, with Apple TV+ carving out 35.6 million global users four years from now.
In September, the research company, in its latest predictions of video streaming for Africa specifically, noted that although Disney+ is only launching around June 2022 and just in South Africa, its subscriber base will quickly grow to 2.17 million subscribers by 2026.
MultiChoice’s Showmax, currently in second place, will fall to third place and is predicted to increase its base from an estimated 861 000 subscribers by the end of 2021 to 2.12 million by 2026.
Amazon Prime Video will be in fourth place by 2026 and will grow from 575 000 subscribers at the end of 2021 to 1.93 million subscribers in sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile Apple TV+ is projected to increase its subscriber base in Africa from 121 000 to 304 000 subscribers.